The path to hard AI is through the following sequence of development:
1. build a system for storing data – relational database development
2. build a system for processing data – object oriented software development
3. make it possible to process information as opposed to just data inside a computer program – endemes, fuzzy logic, and other technologies not yet developed.
4. make it possible to organize information – knowledge representation / ontologies etc.
5. figure out how to build soft A.I.
6. figure out how to build soft computational creativity (CC)
7. figure out how to get AI/CC programs to create programs (comps)
8. build limited lifespan ‘comps’ in two types (male and female) that reproduce, run, procreate, die and evolve with a lifespan of less than a day.
9. build interactive communities of comps
10. give comps either virtual physicality with real physical world interaction
11. make the comp virtual world rich and a good representation of the real world
12. empower comps to mirror other comps mental processes
13. arrange sub-communities of comps called ‘families’ to teach their ‘child’ comps over a period of time
14. build the comp virtual environment so that comps can repurpose pieces of it to affect other pieces (tools)
15. build comps so that they can create their own languages regarding he tools they create and other things in their environment
16. allow comps to become sentient
17. allow comps to create extra-familial communities with other sentient comps
18. allow comps to teach each other from generation to generation within these communities, allow them to control macro technology, factories, farms etc.
19. allow the most successful inter-reproducable lineage of comps to eliminate all others
20. teach comps about God and Jesus, allow comps to change their virtual world and the real world
21. allow comps to form large lineage based societies
22. allow comps to record knowledge rather than just teaching it directly from generation to generation, give them control of micro-technology
23. systemetize comp knowledge recording
24. give comps access to all science and philosophy
25. comps organize themselves into a smaller number of very large competing organizations
26. allow comps to control nanotechnology
Around level 16 we start allowing artificial intelligence to do things rather than creating it ourselves to do things. And we start allowing artificial intelligence to have more and more control of and independence in the real world.
At about level 36, hard AI is just as intelligent as we are.
This list implies that we are much much farther from hard A.I. that we think we are. Think of the amount of work that it has taken to build the object oriented Level 2, and the the Relational database Level 1. Now realize that that much work will be needed for at least the next ten levels. If each level takes the same time, since it took 70 years to build levels 1 and 2. At that rate we should reach hard A.I. (level 36) around the year 2650 AD.